Despite late month deluge, Denton County still lags in rainfall

October was another warm and slightly dry month across Denton County, but the news isn’t all bad.

Our average high was 81, three degrees warmer than normal. Our average low was 51, which was actually 2 degrees cooler than normal, and gave our AC’s and electric bills a bit of relief (that’s the good news).

Just as in September, above-normal highs and below-normal lows indicate lower humidity, which creates several problems. Make no mistake, humid air is uncomfortable, but dry air makes it less likely that we’ll get significant rains even when a powerful storm system comes along, such as the one that came through on the 24^th.

Additionally, there are three other conditions aggravated by dry air: Dust, pollen (Ragweed and Mountain Cedar) and wildfire danger.

For all its chafing, moldiness and irritation, humidity helps regulate or temper both high and low temperatures. Water vapor is the most abundant and significant “greenhouse gas” on earth. If you want to experience living without greenhouse gases, spend a few days in Death Valley, where high temperatures often reach 115 and lows drop into the 40’s in the space of 24 hours.

Rainfall was looking pretty grim until the last eight days of the month. Denton Enterprise recorded 3.66” of rain which was close to our normal October rainfall of 3.92 inches. Rainfall was recorded on the 11^th (.10”), 16^th (.26”), 24^th (1.42”), and on the 28^th – 29^th (1.88”).

Through the first 10 months of the year, Denton has recorded less than 20 inches of rain. Normal rainfall through October is about 29 inches. That 9-inch rainfall deficit is why we’re seeing so many brown fields that are usually green.

No severe weather was reported in Denton County during October, although the 40-50 mile-per-hour winds that followed the storm system on the 24^th did their share of wind-pruning and trash bag swapping. It’s a blessing that the center of the parent storm system was well north of Texas, because it was an extremely strong storm system from the time it was observed near Alaska.

Since severe weather was so rare here in October, I’m thinking we might see more active weather in November and December, the latter weeks of our secondary severe weather season during fall.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center paints most of Texas “warmer and drier” for at least November. Long-range forecast models are predicting that cooler-than-normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will persist through the winter months. La Niña winters in Texas are not always milder, but generally milder in terms of Polar fronts and wintry precipitation.

On the other side of the ledger, warm, dry winters can set the tables for serious wildfire conditions in late winter and early spring.