Back in May, there were strong suspicions that we were in for a long hot summer. June’s weather has removed all doubt.
A quick recap: May’s average temperature of 76 degrees was nearly 4 degrees above normal, with at least 15 days at or above 90. At least we had decent rainfall of over 4 inches. June’s weather has been much hotter, and with nearly no rainfall.
We’ll start with the rainfall since it’s the easiest. Denton Enterprise recorded .13” of rain on the first of June, .02” on the second and another .11” on the third for a whopping .26” by this writing on June 26th. June’s rainfall was nearly 3 inches below normal. Despite gusty south winds carrying Saharan sand dust, no severe weather was reported in Denton County last month.
The average high for the month was 96, which was 5 degrees above the normal of 91. The average low of 73 was a full 4 degrees above the normal of 69. The day/night average of all temperatures of June through the 26th was 84.5 degrees, nearly 5 degrees warmer than the climatological norm. Denton had at least 7 daytime highs at or above 100. Two of the hottest days of the month were June 11th at 103 and June 12th at 105 degrees. Denton hit 103 again on June 24th in a stretch of 7 days at or above 99 degrees. This will likely put June 2022 among the top-five warmest Junes on record since official records were available in 1975.
The Climate Prediction Center isn’t in the habit of forecasting miraculous breaks in Texas heat waves, so it’s forecasting a high probability (60-70% confidence) that temperatures will remain well-above normal in July, with below normal rainfall. The same goes for the next three months through September. The CPC notes the La Niña pattern of cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have risen slightly higher recently, but the current La Niña is entering its third year.
Not always, but in general, La Niña brings warmer temperatures to the southern U.S., while suppressing hurricane development in the Pacific and increasing hurricane development in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Despite near normal sea temperatures in the Pacific, this La Niña cycle is expected to continue through at least the fall season.
Lake levels in North Texas are still in good shape. As of June 26th, Texoma, Ray Roberts and Lewisville were near 100% of capacity. Lake Bridgeport, Eagle Mountain, Lake Worth and Benbrook were still in the mid to upper 80-percent range. Still, we can expect a significant drawdown of lake levels in the coming months. Meanwhile burn bans surged in the past month, now covering 163 of Texas’ 254 counties. More hot and dry weather to come.
The race is on! 1980 and 2011 are the benchmarks for hot summers in North/Central Texas. But so far 2022 looks like a worthy competitor. Here’s how each year’s 100 degree heat in June compares for both DFW and Waco. #dfwwx #ctxwx pic.twitter.com/NtKhJnBbEA
— NWS Fort Worth (@NWSFortWorth) June 28, 2022
Brad Barton is Chief Meteorologist of WBAP 820 / 570 KLIF. Weekly podcast each Monday at WBAP.com and on the WBAP Facebook Page.