By Tony Lawrence
On Tuesday, I woke up cautiously confident Texas would remain under Republican control. On Wednesday, that confidence was obliterated. I hadn’t traveled a mile, but politically I felt a long way from home.
Democrats won the governor’s office, a U.S. Senate seat, and control of the Texas House, while Republicans retained their state Senate majority. Texas will enter 2027 with divided state government for the first time in over two decades.
We left California more than a decade ago for several reasons, including lower taxes, less intrusive government and greater opportunity. Those priorities helped bring us to Texas. They also explain my disappointment with Tuesday’s results.
Disappointment, however, is a poor substitute for an honest accounting.
For years, Texas conservatives have counted on economic growth, dependable Republican voters and newcomers attracted to the state’s opportunities. Those advantages come with no guarantee of political loyalty. Moving here creates no obligation to vote Republican. Neither does benefiting from policies Republicans helped enact.
Past success gives a party a record to defend. Voters still decide whether they trust it to keep governing.
Texas had a warning in 2018
During President Trump’s first midterm, Republicans lost 12 Texas House seats, two state Senate seats, and two congressional seats. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points. Nationally, Republicans lost the U.S. House while expanding their Senate majority.
Texas Republicans retained every statewide office and both legislative chambers. This year’s losses reached much further.
The comparison gives us a benchmark. It also raises questions that blaming Washington alone won’t answer. Which voters stayed home? Which changed their votes? How much did candidates, state policies and national politics each contribute?
Republicans need evidence before settling on a comforting explanation.
Lesson 1: Prosperity must reach the kitchen table
Corporate relocations and job creation matter. Families also measure prosperity by what remains after paying the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, groceries and gas.
A booming state can be an expensive place to live. Announcing another corporate headquarters does little to reassure a homeowner whose costs keep climbing.
Republicans should examine whether promised relief reached households and whether their priorities matched the pressures voters faced. They should also explain which costs state government can influence and what their proposals would actually change.
Assuming voters simply failed to appreciate good governance excuses Republicans from examining how well they governed and campaigned.
Lesson 2: Primary choices have November consequences
A primary victory puts a candidate before a much larger electorate. Primary voters should consider whether their nominee can earn the confidence of people who don’t already agree with them.
Conservative principles matter to me. So do judgment, competence, integrity and the ability to represent people who disagree.
Primary voters should demand specific proposals, defensible records and serious answers to difficult questions.
If Republican primaries reward provocation and personal loyalty while overlooking those qualities, November becomes an expensive reckoning.
Lesson 3: Listening requires accepting uncomfortable answers
Across Denton and Collin counties and throughout Texas, residents have practical questions about their homes, schools, roads and safety.
Candidates need clear answers, including what their plans will cost, how they’ll work and what tradeoffs they require.
They also need to hear criticism without treating it as disloyalty. A longtime Republican voter who chooses a Democrat deserves a serious hearing. So does a conservative who stays home because neither candidate earned that person’s support.
Party leaders should be willing to ask: What did we promise? What did we deliver? Where did we lose your confidence?
The answers may challenge priorities they’ve spent years defending. That’s part of the work.
The work ahead
Texas Republicans’ Senate majority gives them substantial influence over the next legislative session. A Democratic governor, House majority, and lieutenant governor will require both parties to navigate divided authority. Texas has done that before.
Conservatives should scrutinize spending, defend individual liberty and demand results. They should also give worthwhile proposals a fair hearing.
Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa’s proposed one-time $1,500 payment to every Texas household offers an early test. Her campaign estimates a $17 billion cost, funded through the state’s Rainy Day Fund and subject to legislative approval.
Returning money to taxpayers is consistent with conservative principles. So is maintaining adequate reserves. Republicans should examine how much Texas can responsibly return and whether a one-time payment or lasting tax relief would deliver greater value. The proposal’s Democratic author should have no bearing on the rigor or fairness of that review.
Democrats won the opportunity to govern. They now bear responsibility for the cost and consequences of their promises. Texans should expect measurable progress on the household pressures that figured so prominently in this election.
I still believe in the principles that drew us to Texas. I expect Republican leaders to apply them competently, acknowledge where they fell short and explain how they’ll do better.
The next election will give voters another choice. Between now and then, Republicans need to show what they’ve learned through the candidates they nominate, the policies they advance and the way they govern.
Tony O. Lawrence has lived in Flower Mound since 2010. He is a U.S. Air Force veteran who served on active duty during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
