Stock returns

[Common Sense Al]

Don't forget to calculate dividends when you talk about returns. They can skew the picture.

It would be nice to incorporate that data but I doubt it would change much. I think dividends are pretty lousy nowadays (overall).

[Common Sense Al]

I think I need to update my graph. Looks like average 10 year returns could go negative (not counting dividends) if they haven't already.

[josh]

I am the LAST person you should listen to when looking for stock picking advice. I work in the debt markets, not equity markets. But, when I saw a company like WAMU trading at $2 this week with everyone screaming about pulling their money out because it was about to collapse...I knew there was a great buying opportunity. WAMU has a decent balance sheet and was not as exposed to Lehmand and AIG as others. Today, my purchase is up 75% (less commissions). So let me just say THANK YOU to all of those people who were calling for WAMUs collapse. I just made enough for Christmas.

[Common Sense Al]

I am the LAST person you should listen to when looking for stock picking advice. I work in the debt markets, not equity markets. But, when I saw a company like WAMU trading at $2 this week with everyone screaming about pulling their money out because it was about to collapse...I knew there was a great buying opportunity. WAMU has a decent balance sheet and was not as exposed to Lehmand and AIG as others. Today, my purchase is up 75% (less commissions). So let me just say THANK YOU to all of those people who were calling for WAMUs collapse. I just made enough for Christmas.

Gotta sell first to lock in your gains, then take out taxes.

And I think it is more luck than anything else when you buy a stock like that. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose it all. I think it's more like gambling than investing.

Congrats though! I wish I could go back in time.

[josh]

I am the LAST person you should listen to when looking for stock picking advice. I work in the debt markets, not equity markets. But, when I saw a company like WAMU trading at $2 this week with everyone screaming about pulling their money out because it was about to collapse...I knew there was a great buying opportunity. WAMU has a decent balance sheet and was not as exposed to Lehmand and AIG as others. Today, my purchase is up 75% (less commissions). So let me just say THANK YOU to all of those people who were calling for WAMUs collapse. I just made enough for Christmas.

Gotta sell first to lock in your gains, then take out taxes.

And I think it is more luck than anything else when you buy a stock like that. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose it all. I think it's more like gambling than investing.

Congrats though! I wish I could go back in time.

Luck is making a 75% return. No question there. It wasnt luck that I was going to make some positive return. I have a decent sense for company valuation (not the same as equity value all the time) and it seemed clear to me that this company was going to sell for more per share than what I paid or it was going to get fresh life by way of new capital or govt assistance. For the most part I agree. Placing short term stock bets is often like gambling.

[Common Sense Al]

Luck is making a 75% return. No question there. It wasnt luck that I was going to make some positive return. I have a decent sense for company valuation (not the same as equity value all the time) and it seemed clear to me that this company was going to sell for more per share than what I paid or it was going to get fresh life by way of new capital or govt assistance. For the most part I agree. Placing short term stock bets is often like gambling.

Uh-oh... hope you sold in time! Curious, care to share how your gamble turned out?

[estubbart]

Hahhahhaa- no doubt. What did WAMU close at today- $.03... Nice. Hope you sold or you just lost all your money! I had a nice investment hit the other day with Downey Financial (ticker DSL). I bought and sold quickly and hit it just right for about a $1.26 gain per share.
The stock is down again today due to the WAMU news and does have the potential to fall apart, but something is telling me it won't. I'm going to see what happens this weekend and gamble again...